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Whatever happened to trade wars?

Sunday, 30th October 2017

"In meetings with a wide array of investors, a common thread is concern over geopolitical risks and, specifically, the prospect of escalating trade tensions between the US and its trade partners. What would a trade war look like? Are the necessary ingredients for one to occur in place? And what is the upshot? On one hand, as a trade economist (and, full disclosure, a Canadian), these questions strike close to home. However, from the perspective of the long history of postwar international trade and the even longer history of globalisation, the possibility of a trade war has actually grown increasingly remote. For starters, broad tariff escalations — pretty much anywhere in the world — are quite rare. Rather, changes in applied tariffs in recent decades have been generally small, episodic and narrow across products and trading partners. In UN data covering 5.5m product- and country-specific annual tariff changes since 1995, more than 50 per cent were close to zero and fewer than 2.5 per cent were higher than 10 percentage points."

Select the link to read this article in full. 


Web-link: http://www.ft.com/content/7c65fab6-a8e9-11e7-ab55-27219df83c97
Language: English
Contact: Benjamin Mandel


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